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Hot Rolled Steel Coil: Market Prices & Export Trends
Hot Rolled Steel Coil prices weakened in China during September 10–15, with HRC losses widening as demand remained under pressure and inventories increased. Meanwhile, iron ore arrivals recovered sharply, port congestion remained severe, and international shipping rates showed different trends across major regions.
The latest market conditions indicate continued pressure on steel prices, while changes in freight rates and overseas demand are creating different opportunities for steel exporters.
Hot Rolled Steel Coil Market Prices
As of September 11, major steel prices declined compared with September 4. Hot Rolled Steel Coil averaged 3,344 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton. Rebar averaged 3,328 yuan/ton, cold-rolled coil 3,813 yuan/ton, and plate 3,572 yuan/ton. Prices declined in 29 of 39 major cities.
HRC output reached 2.9055 million tons, down 45,300 tons week on week, while apparent demand decreased by 60,800 tons to 2.9245 million tons.
Social inventory increased to 4.6625 million tons, up 21,100 tons week on week and 28.06% year on year. Combined mill and social inventory reached 5.1278 million tons.
HRC profitability also weakened. Net profit fell to -55 yuan/ton, while HRC gross profit declined by 104 yuan/ton. HRC FOB prices were approximately $499/ton, with inquiries remaining weak.
Hot Rolled Steel Coil Supply and Demand
The current Hot Rolled Steel Coil market is facing pressure from weaker apparent demand and rising inventories.
Although HRC production declined slightly during the week, the reduction in demand was larger. This caused social inventory to increase and added pressure to the market.
Traders are advised to reduce market exposure and accelerate inventory turnover. Steel mills may consider maintenance and production cuts in mid-to-late September.
Market participants should also monitor the HRC futures range of 3,280–3,390 yuan/ton, the sixth coke price increase, and the progress of HRC destocking.
Iron Ore Arrivals and Port Conditions
Iron ore supply and port conditions continue to influence the broader Hot Rolled Steel Coil market.
As of September 8, the average berthing wait reached 4.72 days in Shanghai and 3.58 days in Ningbo, while some terminals recorded waiting times of more than nine days. Approximately 99 ships were waiting at anchorage.
Typhoon Saudel disrupted operations at Shanghai and Ningbo ports. Global trapped container capacity exceeded 4.31 million TEU, above the 2022 pandemic peak, while Ningbo Meishan yard utilization reached approximately 90%.
Iron ore inventories at 47 major ports fell to 170.2322 million tons, down 1.0758 million tons week on week. Daily offtake increased to 3.585 million tons.
Iron ore arrivals reached 26.996 million tons from September 1–6 and 28.975 million tons from September 7–13, showing a significant recovery in incoming supply.
Steel Export and Shipping Trends
For international Hot Rolled Steel Coil suppliers, shipping costs remain an important factor affecting export competitiveness.
The Baltic Dry Index reached 3,620 on September 9 before falling to 3,445 on September 14. The index declined 1.77% day on day and 3.64% week on week, but remained 20.33% higher month on month.
The SCFI increased 2.0% to 3,662.18. US West Coast rates rose to $7,339/FEU, while US East Coast rates increased to $10,479/FEU.
In contrast, European rates fell to $2,545/20ft, while Mediterranean rates declined to $3,299.
Africa and South America Export Market
Africa and South America remain important destinations for steel exporters, although shipping rates have moved differently across the two regions.
Africa-bound rates weakened during the period. The CCFI South Africa index declined 0.6% to 1,430.44, while East and West Africa rates fell 2.8% to 1,134.88.
CMA CGM is scheduled to add a $100/TEU China–Durban surcharge from September 17. Steel exporters shipping cargo to Africa should therefore consider booking space two to three weeks ahead.
South American shipping rates rose sharply in early September before retreating. East Coast 40-foot FAK rates were around $8,700–9,700, while West Coast and Mexico rates were approximately $7,000–8,100.
Brazil–Qingdao iron ore freight increased to $41.094/ton, while the coastal bulk index declined 2.3%.
Hot Rolled Steel Coil Export Outlook
The current Hot Rolled Steel Coil export outlook remains closely linked to steel prices, overseas demand, and shipping costs.
For Africa-bound cargo, exporters should consider booking space in advance because of the upcoming China–Durban surcharge and changing freight conditions. For South America, the recent correction in shipping rates may provide a temporary opportunity for West Coast shippers, while East Coast cargo should be arranged earlier.
From the steel export perspective, Africa’s infrastructure demand and South America’s restocking demand are two areas worth monitoring. Changes in freight rates may also affect the final landed cost of HRC and other steel products.
Key Market Factors for Steel Suppliers
Steel manufacturers, traders, and exporters should continue to monitor:
- Hot Rolled Steel Coil prices
- HRC production and inventories
- Steel mill demand
- Iron ore arrivals
- Port congestion
- International shipping rates
- Africa infrastructure demand
- South America restocking demand
- Regional freight changes
The combination of weak HRC demand, rising inventories, recovering iron ore arrivals, and changing shipping costs means that steel exporters need to evaluate both product prices and logistics conditions when planning international shipments.
Conclusion
The latest Hot Rolled Steel Coil market shows continued price pressure in China, with HRC demand weakening and inventories increasing. At the same time, iron ore arrivals have recovered, while severe port congestion continues to affect global logistics.
International shipping markets remain divided. US routes strengthened, Europe weakened, Africa softened, and South America retreated after an earlier spike.
For steel exporters, Africa’s infrastructure demand and South America’s restocking activity remain important opportunities to watch. Careful monitoring of HRC prices, inventories, iron ore supply, freight rates, and regional demand will remain essential for export planning.
